Jarrod Horak's - Weekly Replay

Del Mar full card analysis (Sunday, July 20, 2008)

by Jarrod Horak (www.racingonthenet.com, http://www.myspace.com/calkid692002)

Best Bets (races 3, 8, 9) 

DMR 1 (Mcl-25k, 3up, 7f) NUMBER 9 RUSSIAN LIQUOR (7-2) was hung out to dry (blinks on) from the 11-hole in a sharp 5.5f sprint last out. The outside post at this distance should not hurt the likely improver. Might be the one to catch as he drops from $40k. Number 7 Athenry (5-2) has hit the board in 5 of 6 career starts, and the consistent nibbler goes route to sprint for the profitable Contreras/Periban team. He ran well in a pair of extended sprints at Hollywood. Number 8 Bay Zing (8-1) is worth a flyer 2nd time out for Ben Cecil. He was an okay 5th of 7 in his $40k bow, and the fig plots close to these. Look out if he improves a bit 2nd time out. THE PLAYS: Number 9 to win, Exacta box 7-9, small quinella 8-9 

DMR 2 (Clm-32k, 4up, 6f) NUMBER 6 STORM MACHINE (5-1) was re-claimed out of his last by Sadler (2 wins yesterday), and he reunites with winning pilot Bejarano, who booted him home to both of his US wins, including a Feb. entry level tally at this distance. Number 4 Wheaton Hall (5-1) is my top's stablemate, and expect aggressive handling under Pedroza, who rolled with this one in a local 6f claiming sprint last year. Number 8 Cape Town King (5-2) is faster than these in the paper race and exits a nice score off a year layoff. He should be intently tracking Wheaton Hall from the outset, and we'll see if the 7yo gelding can run two alike. THE PLAYS: Number 6 to win, Quinella 6/4-8, Trifecta box 4-6-8  

DMR 3 (MSW, CA-bred 3up, 6.5f) NUMBER 8 MAJOR SMOKE (4-1) has been a purse nibbler in 1st five starts, but there are reasons to expect a breakthrough. First, he switches to top rider Bejarano. Second, he sports a pair of vastly improved bullets since last seen, and his top two figs were earned at this distance. Number 9 Draft Choice (5-2) bested my top by 1.25 lengths at Hollywood off a layoff last time, an improved pressing effort under Pedroza, who is 2-6 with Sadler. He sports a swift local bullet and should sit a prominent throughout trip from the outside. He's been 2nd or 3rd in 4 of 5 outings. THE PLAYS: Number 8 to win, Exacta box 8-9 

DMR 4 (MSW, 2yo fil, 5.5f) NUMBER 1 TURTLE CREEK BAY (8-1) showed something in debut run for McAnally, who rarely fires with a firster but is a profitable 21% with 2nd timers. Barn struck with Osunitas bomb yesterday, and this juvenile filly looks live from the rail. Number 2 Stardom Bound (3-1) is supposed to be the goods for Chris Paasch, and Mike Smith clicks with this conditioner. $375k purchase could easily hit the ground running. Number 10 Montana Fields (7-2) is working with a purpose for Hollendorfer, and Bejarano hops aboard the daughter of 15% debut 2yo sire Pulpit. Look for speed from the outside box. THE PLAYS: Number 1 to win, Quinella 1/2-10.   

DMR 5 (Clm-50k, 4up, 8.5T) NUMBER 4 SACRED LIGHT (9-2) was over her head in the salty NoCal money allowance ranks last time. He's won 4 of his last 6 and is realistically spotted in his return to SoCal. Bill Morey paid $40k for this one back in May, and he won 1st off the claim under today's pilot R.Baze. Note that he has won last two turf tries at this distance. Number 10 Cowboy Cruisser (7-2) can make this an all NoCal affair, as he;s won 3 of his last 4 turfers up north. Gomez hops aboard the versatile early/pressing win type. THE PLAYS: Number 4 to win, Exacta box 4-10   

DMR 6 (OC-80/2x, 3up, 8f) NUMBER 2 SOUL CITY SLEW (7-2) lures Bejarano away from Mitchell trainee Sensational Score. My top is a 7-28 pro with a handful of graded tries showing on the page. He's in for the $80k tag today and has the versatility to succeed at this flat mile distance. Number 3 Sensational Score (9-2) exits a sharp 8.5f score at Hollywood, and place finisher Super Strut came back to win yesterday's 2nd in fine fashion. Note that Rosario booted him home in April. Number 8 Taxi Fleet (6-1) rates a reasonable chance to wake-up 3rd start off the shelf for Hollendorfer. Gomez is 37% with this barn. THE PLAYS: Number 2 to win, Quinella 2/3-8, Trifecta box 2-3-8

DMR 7 (Fleet Treet, CA-bred 3yo fil, 7f) NUMBER 9 STORMIN WAR DANCER (6-1) is vastly improved since the Feb. to May comeback. She enters off a three-peat, and Hollendorfer gives R.Baze, 2-2 with this one, a leg up. Rider has options from outside post with versatile filly, and note that she faces state breds for the 1st time. She has yet to race beyond 6f and her rising figs are a bit light. I ldo ike the looks of her local 6f drill. Number 5 Spring Awakening (9-5) won her last two starts at 7f under Gomez, but those races were run in Nov. & Dec. '07. Mitchell shows good stats with this kind of returnee, but it is tough to win an extended sprint off this type of hiatus. Number 1 Lethal Heat (2-1) has won 4 of 6 overall and 3-4 around one turn. Bejarano sticks with the versatile (synthetic, turf) 2-time graded winner. Note that she won her lone state bred try. THE PLAYS: Number 9 to win, Quinella 9/1-5   

DMR 8 (Grade 1 Eddie Read Hcp, 3up, 9T) I have always been fond of NUMBER 4 MONZANTE (5-2). I picked him on top in his US bow (Nov. '07) and was rewarded with a sharp off the pace score at 5-1. A 7th off a layoff in the San Fernando (G2) followed, then an improved 3rd in the Strub (G2). A good looking Santana Mile victory under today's pilot Bejarano was up next, then a similar San Fernando performance was forthcoming in a graded synthetic affair, once again off a layoff. He was back to peak in Whittingham (G1) neck defeat, and he is on the verge of a graded breakthrough in his 3rd race back. Number 2 Whatsthescript (7-2) looked good in his surprising comeback tally at this distance in graded Hollywood affair. He was rock solid in 2006-2007, so that last race was no fluke, but can he do it again three weeks later at a different venue? He has never raced here but does sport a nice 6f turf bullet on July 14th. Number 1 Lava Man (3-1) was aggressively handled by new rider T.Baze last time, and expect more of the same from the rail post, but he could have company in Number 6 Storm Military (4-1). Number 7 Spring House (4-1) is a marathoner in need of this shorter outing. THE PLAYS: Number 4 to win, Exacta 4-2   

DMR 9 (Mcl-25k, 3up, 7f) NUMBER 3 SPECIAL GREY GHOST (3-1) removes the hood and drops from straight to bottom maiden level for R.Baze/Morey. He flashed improved early speed versus better last time, and he can win this if fav even slightly stubs his toe. Number 2 Elusive Destiny (2-1) is aforementioned fav. Two nice tries since dropping in for a tag, and show finisher from last came back to score. Number 9 Happy Prayer (8-1) has finished 3rd in 3 of last 4 sprints, and I'll tab him for the show once again. THE PLAYS: Number 3 to win, Exacta 3-2, Trifecta 2-3/2-3/9 

Double/Pick 3/Pick 4 contenders (in order of preference)

Race

(1) 9-7-8

(2) 6-4-8

(3) 8-9

(4) 1-2-10

(5) 4-10

(6) 2-3-8

(7) 9-5-1

(8) 4

(9) 3-2